yl1714

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-1.157195

Relative Brier Score

4

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 2 1 5
Comments 0 0 1 1 1
Questions Forecasted 0 0 1 0 3
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions
New Badge
yl1714
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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
yl1714
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Mar 4, 2024 07:04PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
Yes
Feb 4, 2024 to Mar 4, 2024
80%
No
Feb 4, 2024 to Mar 4, 2024
Why do you think you're right?

Focused more on Hamas right now

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Why might you be wrong?

Hezbollah is unpredictable

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New Badge
yl1714
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
yl1714
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Jan 2, 2024 05:11PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Dec 2, 2023 to Jun 2, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Badge
yl1714
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
yl1714
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Dec 18, 2023 06:11PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35%
Yes
Nov 18, 2023 to May 18, 2024
65%
No
Nov 18, 2023 to May 18, 2024
Because of the ongoing Israel-Hamas war and the conflict spreading to Lebanon and potentially other parts of the Middle East, it will be difficult for Saudi Arabia to normalize positions with Israel
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New Badge
yl1714
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
yl1714
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Nov 21, 2023 05:10PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
90%
Yes
Oct 21, 2023 to Nov 21, 2023

The global controversy and hatred around not the attack itself but the rotten core issue will remain for quite a long time

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New Badge
yl1714
earned a new badge:

My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
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yl1714
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Active Forecaster

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