RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Mar 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?	0.153154
Jan 04, 2022 01:16PM UTC	How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?	0.060914
Nov 16, 2021 02:24PM UTC	What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for China be in the first two quarters of 2021?	-0.047924
Nov 16, 2021 01:34PM UTC	What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021?	-0.060188
Jul 30, 2021 11:11AM UTC	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the first two quarters (January 1 through June 30) of 2021?	0.003829
Jul 01, 2021 05:32PM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive?	-0.001307
Apr 17, 2021 09:56PM UTC	How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between January 1 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.123708
Feb 01, 2021 02:47PM UTC	How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.020237
Nov 13, 2020 04:08PM UTC	When will China officially recognize a winner of the U.S. presidential election?	-0.1316

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