Forecasted Questions
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 26, 2024 08:44PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jun 26, 2024 08:44PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 1% | +9% | -2% |
| No | 90% | 99% | -9% | +2% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 26, 2024 08:44PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jun 26, 2024 08:44PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | 8% | +27% | -43% |
| No | 65% | 92% | -27% | +43% |