jessielee

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")? 0.022895
    May 15, 2024 10:00PM In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 15, 2024 and May 15, 2024) -0.00374
    Apr 15, 2024 10:00PM In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 15, 2024 and Apr 15, 2024) -0.00691
    Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 5,000 fatalities from battles and remote violence between Azerbaijani and Armenian security forces? 0.019708
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023? 0.902032
    Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023) 0.062132
    Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities from conflict or political violence in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank? -0.001784
    Apr 1, 2023 04:01AM Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession? -0.003601
    Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China? -0.003367
    Feb 28, 2023 05:00PM On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035? -0.049349
    Jan 25, 2023 02:00PM What percentage of ASML's lithography sales will be to the United States in 2022? 0.0169
    Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM In 2022, will the Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Co. list a new lithography machine as an available product on its website? 0.040203
    Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM By 31 December 2022, will Impossible Foods announce a date for their IPO? 0.000136
    Dec 6, 2022 08:00PM Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022) -0.000693
    Nov 6, 2022 08:00PM Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022) -0.0011
    Sep 26, 2022 04:00PM Will the Brothers of Italy Party (FdI) win the most seats in the 2022 Italian general election? 0.025171
    Aug 1, 2022 01:52PM Will the Council of the European Union announce sanctions on the provision of cloud services to Russia before 31 July 2022? 0.000339
    Aug 1, 2022 04:00AM How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? - 2022 H1 0.073686
    Jul 21, 2022 01:00PM How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for June 2022? -0.043495
    Jul 6, 2022 03:59AM What percentage of Arizona will be facing severe drought or worse on 5 July 2022? -0.00198
     
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