RAND Forecasting Initiative

2023 Season

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?	0.022895
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 5,000 fatalities from battles and remote violence between Azerbaijani and Armenian security forces?	0.019708
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023?	0.902032
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM	Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023)	0.062132
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM	From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities from conflict or political violence in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank?	-0.001784
Apr 1, 2023 04:01AM	Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession?	-0.003601
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?	-0.003367
Feb 28, 2023 05:00PM	On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035?	-0.049349