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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
There are 10 days left in the year. I don't believe it's likely for geopolitical tensions to increase to a point where Microsoft would terminate its lab. Add on the US-based holidays, and I doubt any large decisions are likely to be made. Microsoft seems to have shifted a decent number of Chinese researchers to North America-based labs, but seemingly has kept its foothold.
Why might you be wrong?
There may be some unexpected downturn in geopolitical relations.