RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.003707
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	0.050181
Jan 31, 2022 02:28PM	How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?	0.089836
Jan 3, 2022 01:44PM	What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?	0.003122
Jan 3, 2022 01:41PM	What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?	-0.08875
Jan 1, 2022 05:00AM	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021?	-0.011987
Jun 1, 2021 06:44PM	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?	-0.000075
Apr 1, 2021 04:51PM	How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.007535
Feb 1, 2021 02:49PM	How much new funding will facial recognition companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.008216
Nov 3, 2020 02:25PM	Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?	-0.000198
Oct 20, 2020 01:16PM	How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	-0.027551
Oct 1, 2020 06:17PM	How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	-0.013788
Aug 16, 2020 03:59AM	What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between June 15 and August 15, 2020, inclusive?	0.054497