RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.014054
May 31, 2022 03:08PM	Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?	-0.060767
Apr 1, 2022 04:00AM	What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?	-0.066993
Feb 8, 2022 06:49AM	Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?	0.705988
Feb 3, 2022 02:00PM	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?	0.042104
Jan 31, 2022 03:17PM	How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.157713
Jan 31, 2022 02:49PM	How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.013794
Jan 31, 2022 02:48PM	How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.057587
Jan 1, 2022 01:49PM	Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?	-0.001245
Jan 1, 2022 01:40PM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.107175
Jan 1, 2022 05:00AM	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021?	0.40548
Jan 1, 2022 05:00AM	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?	0.41032
Nov 18, 2021 12:12PM	When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?	-0.031835
Sep 23, 2021 10:19AM	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?	0.712983
Jul 1, 2021 05:30PM	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?	-0.001011
Mar 7, 2021 09:22PM	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	0.189124
Feb 18, 2021 03:07PM	What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16?	-0.001189