RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
May 23, 2023 03:04PM	Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022)	-0.000076
May 25, 2022 02:09PM	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022?	0.001027
Feb 8, 2022 06:49AM	Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?	0.112796
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM	Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022)	-0.001271
Jan 1, 2022 12:59PM	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	-0.142567
Jan 1, 2022 05:00AM	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?	-0.115371
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021)	-0.000443
Nov 18, 2021 03:56PM	What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?	-0.193025
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021)	-0.000835
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021)	-0.00126
Sep 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2021 and Sep 17, 2021)	-0.0019
Feb 1, 2021 02:47PM	How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	0.000784