RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	0.788366
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.31463
Apr 1, 2022 04:00AM	What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?	0.008494
Mar 1, 2022 05:00AM	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?	-0.007508
Jan 31, 2022 02:28PM	How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?	-0.005823
Jan 4, 2022 01:19PM	How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?	-0.071503
Jan 3, 2022 01:44PM	What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?	-0.034678
Jan 3, 2022 01:41PM	What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?	-0.005466
Jan 1, 2022 12:59PM	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	-0.814428
Jan 1, 2022 05:00AM	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021?	-0.002962
Jan 1, 2022 05:00AM	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?	0.111801
Nov 18, 2021 12:12PM	When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?	0.412141
Nov 16, 2021 02:24PM	What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for China be in the first two quarters of 2021?	-0.007556
Nov 16, 2021 01:34PM	What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021?	0.064421
Nov 16, 2021 12:53PM	What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?	-0.09348
Sep 23, 2021 10:19AM	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?	-0.094429
Jul 30, 2021 11:11AM	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the first two quarters (January 1 through June 30) of 2021?	0.158181
Jul 1, 2021 05:32PM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive?	0.02424
Apr 17, 2021 09:56PM	How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between January 1 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.003492
Apr 10, 2021 03:56AM	How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.105053

Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM

Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?

0.788366

Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM

What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?

-0.31463

Apr 1, 2022 04:00AM

What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?

0.008494

Mar 1, 2022 05:00AM

What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?

-0.007508