Confirmed previous forecast
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 64 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 12 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Iran was increasing its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%; no other news or signs of enriching up to over 90%. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20ee6qylwgo
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The beaking news might be released soon.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
ArFi DUV requires breakthroughs in optics, materials, and precision engineering where Chinese firms currently trail global leaders like ASML. U.S. and allied export controls limit China's access to critical photolithography components, including advanced light sources, precision optics, and resists, potentially slowing domestic development. Reports suggest China has achieved some success in producing less advanced lithography systems, but breakthroughs in high-volume ArFi DUV systems remain elusive as of now.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Confirmed. Putin seems to be very healthy as of today. There is a plan for the May 9 Victory Day parade in Moscow. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/02/22/no-plans-for-trump-to-attend-victory-parade-kremlin-a88118
Why might you be wrong?