RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jul 1, 2024 04:01PM	Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?	-0.000099
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023?	0.277438
Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM	Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024?	-0.036969
Sep 1, 2023 04:01AM	Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023?	0.0144
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 3, 2023 and Mar 1, 2023)	0.000105
Feb 2, 2023 05:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022)	-0.000262
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	In 2022, will the Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Co. list a new lithography machine as an available product on its website?	-0.015976
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.000354
Jan 1, 2023 05:00AM	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	0.167926
Feb 8, 2022 06:49AM	Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?	-0.204941
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022)	-0.005684