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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Putin was re-elected to serve a new six year term last year in 2024
Files
Why might you be wrong?
some completely unforeseen events such as health issues...
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time and the absence of any signal from Microsoft announcing this decision this year
Files
Why might you be wrong?
almost impossible
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Russia’s insistence on retaining control over annexed regions remains a major sticking point. The notorious conversation in the White House and Ukraine’s absence from the U.S.-Russia meeting highlights a risk that Kyiv could reject externally imposed terms. Despite ceasefire talks, both sides continue attacks, with Russia launching drones and Ukraine targeting Russian infrastructure (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-launches-drone-attack-ukraine-port-providing-access-black-sea-officials-2025-03-26/).
Why might you be wrong?
Recent talks between senior U.S. and Russian officials signal a renewed push to de-escalate the conflict. Public sentiment in Ukraine is shifting toward ending the war. Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, has expressed confidence that a ceasefire is achievable in 2025 (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-military-spy-chief-says-ceasefire-possible-2025-2025-02-20/).