RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	-0.009736
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?	-0.064365
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.297693
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.00367
Dec 22, 2022 08:51PM	How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?	0.187905
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.236325
Feb 8, 2022 06:49AM	Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?	0.139279
Feb 3, 2022 02:00PM	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?	0.016034
Jan 31, 2022 03:17PM	How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.040558
Jan 31, 2022 02:48PM	How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.029075
Jan 4, 2022 01:22PM	How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.310371
Jan 4, 2022 01:19PM	How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?	-0.072392
Jan 4, 2022 01:16PM	How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?	0.007955
Jan 1, 2022 01:49PM	Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?	0.040061
Jan 1, 2022 12:59PM	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	0.136048
Nov 18, 2021 03:56PM	What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?	-0.033484
Feb 18, 2021 03:07PM	What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16?	0.07018