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142nd
Accuracy Rank
coastbylight
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Artificial Intelligence
China Politics, Relations, and Technology
Formerly on Foretell
Global AI Race: Talent, Research, and Tech
How Will the U.S. Technology Sector Develop in the Coming Years?
Immigration
Industry
INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
International Diplomacy & Conflict
Iran: Threats & Influence
Issue Campaign: U.S. Department of Defense - Silicon Valley Relationship
Microelectronic Technologies
Public Attitudes
Research
Russia-Ukraine War
Science & Technology
Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector
The Water Cooler
U.S.-China
Africa
China Lithography
Cybersecurity
Decoding Disinformation
EA College Tournament
East Asia Security
Economic Debt
Future Bowl
Government Investment
Iran Nuclear Program
Iran-VNSAs
Manufacturing
metric-question
Microelectronics
Mission: AI Advancement
Mission: Diplomacy
Open RAN
Quantum Computing
Russian Disinformation
semiconductors
Semiconductor Supply Chain
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U.S. tech sector
Date Ended
Question
Relative Brier Score
Oct 26, 2024 03:29AM UTC
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between May 10, 2024 and Oct 26, 2024)
0.09823
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024)
0.309299
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024)
0.360511
Aug 02, 2024 05:29AM UTC
Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?
-0.094277
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?
-0.000165
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
-0.048149
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
0.129747
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
-0.004217
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC
Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024?
0.020097
Apr 24, 2024 01:10AM UTC
Will the U.S. Congress pass a military aid package supporting Ukraine worth at least $10 billion before 1 May 2024?
-0.00005
Apr 13, 2024 09:41PM UTC
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2023 and Apr 13, 2024)
0.004282
Apr 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 6, 2024 and Apr 6, 2024)
-0.000732
Apr 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 2, 2024 and Apr 2, 2024)
-0.010849
Apr 02, 2024 03:00PM UTC
Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024?
-0.00231
Apr 01, 2024 04:00PM UTC
What will be the highest price per barrel of Brent crude oil between 4 December 2023 and 31 March 2024?
-0.000196
Mar 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 20, 2024 and Mar 20, 2024)
0.0
Mar 18, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Will Houthi rebels launch a missile that strikes within Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2023 and Mar 18, 2024)
-0.021073
Mar 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 6, 2024 and Mar 6, 2024)
-0.001162
Mar 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?
0.00608
Mar 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 2, 2024 and Mar 2, 2024)
-0.000193
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