142nd
Accuracy Rank

coastbylight

About:
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0.722784

Relative Brier Score

196

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 27 234 196 727
Comments 0 0 11 11 187
Questions Forecasted 0 26 69 49 166
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 1 1 23
 Definitions
New Prediction
coastbylight
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025
95%
No
Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025
While North Korea is being more belligerent than ever, their last test was in 2017. They’ve proven their nuclear capabilities and it doesn’t seem like they’ll do it again, most likely sticking with ballistic missile tests. If they attack South Korea and restart the war, it won’t be either nukes
Files
New Badge
coastbylight
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Oct 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
coastbylight
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
There are too many forces going against the SDF right now. Waning U.S. support, a strengthening anti-US coalition in Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China, which gives Assad room to maneuver, and a belligerent Turkey. I think by this time in two years we will see this resolve as a yes
Files
New Prediction
2030 is still too soon for high volume EUV, there’s a reason why only ASML is doing it right now. However, by 2035 I do think they’ll have it. They’re definitely putting semiconductor manufacturing as a priority so I think it’s only a matter of time, but 2030 is to soon
Files
New Prediction
They’re still dependent on ASML for DUV, k don’t think they’ll be able to manufacture their own that’s high volume by end of next year, it’s too short of a timeline
Files
New Prediction
coastbylight
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025
98% (0%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
coastbylight
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
95% (0%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
coastbylight
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Estonia
0% (0%)
Latvia
0% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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