0.04312
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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New Prediction
The base rate of a successful lunar mission is around 50%. (This figure may not be useful because this includes all lunar launches; recent launches should be weighted more.) Luna-25 appears to have launched on 10 Aug 2023, and the probability of a mission succeeding having launched should be greater than 50%. Recent lunar missions have failed, however, because of spacecraft failures post-launch, so there is still opportunity for this mission to fail. Given the fact that Russia hasn't conducted a lunar mission in the last 45 years, we can deduct some percentage points from the probability of success.