RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jul 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC	Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?	0.000391
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC	Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?	0.278384
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?	-0.006449
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC	Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?	-0.024523
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?	0.003972
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM UTC	Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023)	0.010912
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC	Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?	-0.119582
Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM UTC	Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023?	-0.004635
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined?	0.019295
Apr 05, 2023 07:14PM UTC	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023)	0.022253
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?	0.067895
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	0.015551
Feb 03, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China launch more orbital rockets than the U.S. in January 2023?	0.001185
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	0.224217
Dec 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022)	0.052643
Nov 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022)	0.066606
Aug 01, 2022 01:52PM UTC	Will the Council of the European Union announce sanctions on the provision of cloud services to Russia before 31 July 2022?	0.001896

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