NickS

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3.70985

Relative Brier Score

120

Forecasts

16

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 0 0 237
Comments 0 0 0 0 134
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 73
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 24
 Definitions
New Prediction

That last clarification sentence makes this difficult - "with some, but not all, of the features available in the limited preview, this question will still resolve “Yes”.  "

Without this I would say it is a remote possibility, since Bing continues to threaten users and have difficulty in multi-question production.  With this, even though all signs point to no, a small preview page showing basic answers that can be screened easily is possible.

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New Prediction
NickS
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
35%
Less than $30 million
50%
More than or equal to $30 million but less than $45 million
10%
More than or equal to $45 million but less than $60 million
5%
More than or equal to $60 million but less than $75 million
0%
More than or equal to $75 million

Q3 '22 was $25M

Q2 '22 was  $44M.

Q1 '22 was $21M 

FY '21 was $113M with a growth rate of 91%

Through 3Qs. foundry is at $90M, which would implicate with a simple average of $30M for Q4

Q1 '23 I expect some growth, but there is variability in the industry


Files
New Prediction
NickS
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
95% (0%)
Less than 200
5% (0%)
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 1000
The current max number is 146 in JAN23.  Currently in February there is 69, which, depending on delays in reporting, is not continuing the upward spike in January. Keeping the same prediction
Files
New Prediction
NickS
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
20% (-25%)
Less than or equal to 5
70% (+25%)
Between 6 and 7, inclusive
10% (0%)
More than or equal to 8
Moving closer to normal distribution due to time
Files
New Prediction
NickS
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (-98%)
Less than 5
100% (+98%)
Between 5 and 11, inclusive
0% (0%)
Between 12 and 17, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 18

Updating due to clarification, putting current number at 6

Files
New Prediction

Current pricing at 51, tightening bounds and lowering slightly

Files
New Prediction
NickS
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
30% (+30%)
Less than 20
40% (+20%)
Between 20 and 29, inclusive
25% (-26%)
Between 30 and 39, inclusive
5% (-22%)
Between 40 and 49, inclusive
0% (-2%)
More than or equal to 50

Currently there are only 9 recorded with the latest being 11FEB.  With a 10 day delay that leaves 43 days remaining out of 90 days total.  Following the average previous calculated of 36, we would expect 19 accidents by this point in the quarter.  With this, I am adjusting leftward on my distribution.

Files
New Prediction
Lowering due to time, with only a few days remaining an overthrow or death is highly unlikely
Files
New Prediction
NickS
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Mar 27, 2023 01:05AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Feb 27, 2023 to Mar 27, 2023
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
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