RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jul 28, 2022 07:10PM	Will the U.S. Congress pass a tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing or design before 1 January 2023?	1.387063
Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM	Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022)	0.129167
May 1, 2022 04:00AM	What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll?	0.287053
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	0.070447
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM	Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	-0.688098
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022)	0.062129
Jan 1, 2022 12:59PM	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	0.09936
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021)	0.04
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021)	0.050665
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021)	0.032427
Sep 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2021 and Sep 17, 2021)	0.045506