RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Feb 02, 2024 10:00PM UTC	When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?	0.0
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more civilian fatalities in India?	0.0
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?	0.373907
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?	0.242507
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC	Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?	-0.010287
Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023?	-0.021238
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will a top U.S. chemical or oil and gas company join the BOTTLE consortium as an industry partner by 31 August 2023?	0.016733
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	How many teams from the United States will compete in the 2023 iGEM Grand Jamboree?	0.049198
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?	0.023136
Jul 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023?	-0.052085
Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM UTC	Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?	-0.001022
Apr 20, 2023 06:16PM UTC	What percentage of contributions to Github's “very high impact” AI projects will be from the EU in 2022?	-0.093343
Apr 20, 2023 03:52PM UTC	Will U.S. domestic labor demand for artificial intelligence skills equal or exceed 3.2% for December 2022?	0.014969
Apr 20, 2023 03:23PM UTC	What percentage of contributions to Github's "very high impact" AI projects will be from China in 2022?	0.55121
Apr 20, 2023 03:20PM UTC	How many European Union countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000 in 2022?	-0.003678
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	How will the U.S. rank in AI skills penetration in 2022?	0.303235
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Which country or union will have the second most citations of "high impact" AI scientific publications in 2022?	0.241774
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	How many AI scientific publications will be published by EU institutions in 2022?	-0.001476
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?	0.017969
Mar 22, 2023 04:00PM UTC	How many Chinese Universities will be listed in QS World University Rankings’ top 100 universities for computer science in 2023?	-0.299559

Himanshu

About: