RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022?	0.126133
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?	0.158995
Dec 22, 2022 08:51PM	How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?	-0.086094
May 25, 2022 02:09PM	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022?	-0.002503
Feb 8, 2022 06:49AM	Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?	0.297469
Feb 3, 2022 02:00PM	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?	0.061298
Jan 31, 2022 03:17PM	How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.420641
Jan 1, 2022 02:17PM	Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021?	-0.108489
Jan 1, 2022 01:40PM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.005197
Nov 18, 2021 03:56PM	What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?	0.226486
Jul 1, 2021 05:30PM	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?	-0.001001