RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM UTC	For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?	0.000012
Jul 01, 2024 04:01PM UTC	Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?	0.000026
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC	From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?	0.034085
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC	Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?	-0.029592
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC	Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?	-0.27654
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?	0.004106
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC	Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?	-0.002551
Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023?	0.003687
Feb 02, 2024 10:00PM UTC	When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?	-0.073218
Feb 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?	-0.000243
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC	Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?	-0.013044
Jan 17, 2024 05:00PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?	-0.266076
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more civilian fatalities in India?	0.003098
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?	0.270621
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?	0.003671
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?	-0.011275
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023?	0.038306
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023?	0.00264
Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM UTC	What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023?	0.055299
Dec 22, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 22, 2023 and Dec 22, 2023)	0.002967

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