Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 29, 2024 12:49AM UTC
(4 months ago)
May 29, 2024 12:49AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 25, 2024 11:47PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jun 25, 2024 11:47PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 1% | 7% | -6% | -6% |
| Armenia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Georgia | 1% | 3% | -2% | -2% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 1% | +0% | -1% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 28, 2024 11:22PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Jul 28, 2024 11:22PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 96% | -86% | +3% |
| No | 90% | 4% | +86% | -3% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 10:42PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 10:42PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 | Oct 29, 2024 | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 | Oct 29, 2024 | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 10:42PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 10:42PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 80% | 21% | +59% | -1% |
| No | 20% | 79% | -59% | +1% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 10:45PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 10:45PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60% | Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 | Oct 29, 2024 | 87% | -27% | +5% |
| No | 40% | Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 | Oct 29, 2024 | 13% | +27% | -5% |