43rd
Accuracy Rank

RyanBeck

Ryan Beck
About:

I'm the Forecasting Program Coordinator at Metaculus. Formerly a bridge engineer and I've also written some sci-fi.

GJOpen Profile: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/87827

Metaculus Profile: https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/117502/

"... the strength of opinion in each individual, and its practical influence on his conduct, depend much on the number which he supposes to have entertained the same opinion. The reason of man, like man himself, is timid and cautious when left alone and acquires firmness and confidence in proportion to the number with which it is associated." -Federalist No. 49

Twitter Blog
Show more
View All Badges ยป
Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025? 0.014975
Aug 28, 2023 05:09PM UTC What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (October 2021 through September 2022)? -0.009008
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022? 0.037967
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022? -0.088197
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022? -0.105911
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022? -0.093275
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2022? 0.017823
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? 0.236925
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? 0.238542
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? -0.526298
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? 0.027223
Dec 22, 2022 08:51PM UTC How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)? -0.018941
Jul 23, 2022 04:18PM UTC Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022? 0.029547
Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM UTC Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022) -0.212438
May 31, 2022 03:08PM UTC Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022? -0.149641
May 25, 2022 02:09PM UTC Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022? -0.001838
May 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll? 0.166893
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM UTC What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? -0.0645
Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM UTC When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? -0.05461
Mar 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive? -0.005709
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel