RyanBeck

Ryan Beck
About:

I'm the Forecasting Program Coordinator at Metaculus. Formerly a bridge engineer and I've also written some sci-fi.

GJOpen Profile: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/87827

Metaculus Profile: https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/117502/

"... the strength of opinion in each individual, and its practical influence on his conduct, depend much on the number which he supposes to have entertained the same opinion. The reason of man, like man himself, is timid and cautious when left alone and acquires firmness and confidence in proportion to the number with which it is associated." -Federalist No. 49

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  • 2021 Season
    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025? 0.014975
    Aug 28, 2023 05:09PM What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (October 2021 through September 2022)? -0.009008
    Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022? 0.037967
    Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022? -0.088197
    Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022? -0.105911
    Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022? -0.093275
    Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2022? 0.017823
    Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? 0.236925
    Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? 0.238542
    Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? -0.526298
    Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? 0.027223
    Dec 22, 2022 08:51PM How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)? -0.018941
    Jul 23, 2022 04:18PM Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022? 0.029547
    Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022) -0.212438
    May 31, 2022 03:08PM Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022? -0.149641
    May 25, 2022 02:09PM Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022? -0.001838
    May 1, 2022 04:00AM What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll? 0.166893
    Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? -0.0645
    Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? -0.05461
    Mar 1, 2022 05:00AM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive? -0.005709
     
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