RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Feb 2, 2023 05:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022)	-0.000841
Aug 1, 2022 04:00AM	How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? - 2022 H1	0.319309
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM	Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	-0.088506
Feb 1, 2022 05:00AM	How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? - 2021 H2	0.394212
Jan 31, 2022 03:17PM	How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.161175
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022)	-0.007784
Jan 4, 2022 01:22PM	How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.199254
Jan 1, 2022 02:17PM	Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021?	0.295956
Jan 1, 2022 01:40PM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.0
Jan 1, 2022 12:59PM	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	-0.052889
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021)	-0.004067
Nov 18, 2021 03:56PM	What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?	-0.18792
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021)	-0.003842
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021)	-0.002923
Oct 1, 2021 06:31PM	[Experimental] What will be the consensus crowd forecast on October 1, 2021, on whether COVID-19 originated in a lab in Wuhan, China?	0.310848
Sep 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2021 and Sep 17, 2021)	-0.007042
Jul 1, 2021 05:30PM	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?	-0.000044