jowa

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    May 23, 2023 03:04PM Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022) 0.001372
    Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? -0.013166
    Jul 23, 2022 04:18PM Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022? -0.591524
    Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022) -0.107259
    May 25, 2022 02:09PM Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022? 0.032914
    Mar 1, 2022 05:00AM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive? 0.001611
    Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) 0.00481
    Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) 0.033477
    Jan 4, 2022 01:22PM How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? 0.177742
    Jan 1, 2022 01:52PM Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022? 0.006395
    Jan 1, 2022 01:40PM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.003288
    Jan 1, 2022 12:59PM Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? 0.058606
    Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021) 0.00863
    Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021) 0.03783
    Nov 18, 2021 03:56PM What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work? 0.00052
    Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021) 0.007123
    Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021) 0.005574
    Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021) 0.0
    Oct 1, 2021 06:31PM [Experimental] What will be the consensus crowd forecast on October 1, 2021, on whether COVID-19 originated in a lab in Wuhan, China? 0.01259
    Jul 1, 2021 05:30PM Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021? -0.000991
     
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