RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	-0.019951
Jul 23, 2022 04:18PM	Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022?	-0.492463
May 1, 2022 04:00AM	What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll?	0.151724
Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM	When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	0.463324
Mar 1, 2022 05:00AM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive?	0.138754
Jan 1, 2022 02:17PM	Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021?	-0.108694
Jan 1, 2022 01:49PM	Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?	0.0
Jan 1, 2022 12:59PM	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	-0.015556
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021)	0.003
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021)	0.012119
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021)	0.010607
Sep 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2021 and Sep 17, 2021)	0.003552
Jul 1, 2021 05:30PM	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?	0.693488