RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Aug 1, 2022 04:00AM	How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? - 2022 H1	0.164485
Mar 1, 2022 05:00AM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive?	0.980326
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM	Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	0.746104
Feb 1, 2022 05:00AM	How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? - 2021 H2	0.132349
Jan 31, 2022 03:17PM	How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.004678
Jan 1, 2022 12:59PM	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	0.006028
Nov 18, 2021 03:56PM	What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?	0.06773