RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

You quit this question on Apr 1, 2024 08:51AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
24 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 15, 2024 08:36AM UTC
(8 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	75%	8%	+67%	-53%
No	25%	92%	-67%	+53%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

You quit this question on Apr 1, 2024 08:54AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 18, 2024 10:04PM UTC
(8 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	0%	+0%	-1%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	6%	1%	+5%	-4%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	94%	99%	-5%	+4%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

You quit this question on Apr 1, 2024 09:03AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 25, 2024 01:49PM UTC
(8 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	1%	+3%	-4%
No	96%	99%	-3%	+4%

Columbus

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