RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	-0.028113
Aug 28, 2023 05:09PM UTC	What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (October 2021 through September 2022)?	-0.081755
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022?	-0.037644
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022?	0.014068
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?	-0.036807
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022?	0.057557
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2022?	-0.008474
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.002222
Jul 23, 2022 04:18PM UTC	Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022?	0.235099
Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM UTC	Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022)	0.112201
May 31, 2022 03:08PM UTC	Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?	0.045333
May 25, 2022 02:09PM UTC	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022?	-0.001351
May 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll?	0.025553
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.08073
Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM UTC	When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	0.02751
Mar 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive?	-0.010491
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC	Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	0.040045
Feb 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Feb 17, 2022)	-0.010248
Feb 16, 2022 06:45PM UTC	Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2021 and Dec 31, 2021)	-0.009625
Feb 08, 2022 06:49AM UTC	Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?	-0.059263

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