RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022?	-0.008376
Mar 1, 2023 05:00AM	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	0.029536
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.002871
Dec 29, 2022 10:00PM	What will be the outcome of the Israeli legislative election on 1 November 2022?	-0.1101
Nov 28, 2022 03:46PM	Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022?	0.134288
Sep 26, 2022 04:00PM	Will the Brothers of Italy Party (FdI) win the most seats in the 2022 Italian general election?	0.237886
May 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 3, 2022 and May 3, 2022)	0.002913
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.002141
Apr 27, 2022 09:00PM	When will the end of day closing value for the Russian Ruble against the US Dollar drop below 75 Rubles to 1 USD?	0.015116
Apr 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 3, 2022 and Apr 3, 2022)	0.0
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM	Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	-0.052843