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New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Oct 18, 2023 02:03PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 18, 2023 to Mar 18, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-3%)
Yes
Lowering probability to account for less time until March 31
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 14, 2023 10:59PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 14, 2023 to Feb 14, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
same as with previous forecasts
Files
Why might you be wrong?
same as with previous forecasts
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 10, 2023 01:29AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 10, 2023 to Jan 10, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 5, 2023 01:47PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 5, 2023 to Dec 5, 2023
Confirmed previous forecast
Files