RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?	-0.000276
Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM	Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?	-0.113214
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?	-0.000564
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM	Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?	0.228868
Apr 20, 2023 06:16PM	What percentage of contributions to Github's “very high impact” AI projects will be from the EU in 2022?	0.162896
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM	How will the U.S. rank in AI skills penetration in 2022?	-0.189756
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM	Which country or union will have the second most citations of "high impact" AI scientific publications in 2022?	0.242932
Apr 5, 2023 07:15PM	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	0.269905
Feb 1, 2023 06:46PM	Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?	0.521453
Jan 1, 2023 05:00AM	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	0.040426
Jul 27, 2022 12:59PM	How many tech startup layoff events will be recorded in July 2022?	0.708934
Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM	Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022)	-0.484961
Jul 6, 2022 03:59AM	What percentage of Arizona will be facing severe drought or worse on 5 July 2022?	0.600334
Jul 1, 2022 08:00PM	How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years? - 2022 H1	0.175853
Jul 1, 2022 01:25PM	Will Tether (USDT) trade below $0.95 at any time before 1 July 2022?	0.256543
Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM	When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	0.686003
Mar 16, 2022 04:00PM	In Stanford University's 2022 AI Report, what percentage of new US resident PhD's in AI will be Asian, Black or African American, Hispanic, or multiracial?	0.209877
Jan 31, 2022 03:05PM	How will the ratio of China-authored to U.S.-authored highly cited (top 1%) AI papers change over the next three years? - 2021	0.628279
Oct 1, 2021 06:31PM	[Experimental] What will be the consensus crowd forecast on October 1, 2021, on whether COVID-19 originated in a lab in Wuhan, China?	0.188714