Confirmed previous forecast
0.539602
Relative Brier Score
16
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(+9%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
He was elected as such in October: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/23/xi-jinping-secures-historic-third-term-as-chinas-leader
Files
Why might you be wrong?
He could die. There could be a violent coup, there could be a nuclear war that hits Beijing. All extremely unlikely, but Going over 99% is something I don't do.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
There is a day left in the question timeframe and the US is in the lead, with no scheduled launches for China left in January.
Why might you be wrong?
There's some information I'm missing that's not available on the https://www.rocketlaunch.live/ schedule.