RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jul 1, 2022 08:00PM	How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years? - 2022 H1	0.015137
Jan 31, 2022 03:35PM	How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years? - 2021 H2	0.006207
Jan 1, 2022 02:17PM	Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021?	0.0057
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021)	0.0
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021)	0.0
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021)	-0.00084
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021)	1.02144
Sep 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2021 and Sep 17, 2021)	-0.004842
Sep 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2021 and Sep 17, 2021)	0.287961