RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.037878
Jan 31, 2022 02:48PM	How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.077024
Jan 4, 2022 01:16PM	How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?	0.020712
Sep 23, 2021 10:19AM	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?	0.08814
Mar 7, 2021 09:22PM	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.026178
Nov 3, 2020 02:25PM	Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?	0.00513
Oct 31, 2020 03:04PM	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the third quarter of 2020 (ending September 30)?	0.053142
Oct 1, 2020 04:00AM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?	0.006063
Sep 1, 2020 01:31PM	Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?	-0.000398
Aug 11, 2020 03:59AM	Will the Chinese government add Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, or Boeing to its 'unreliable entities list' by August 10, 2020?	-0.001898
Aug 1, 2020 03:59AM	Will Germany, France, Italy, or Spain announce any new restrictions on the use of Huawei equipment in their 5G networks by July 31, 2020?	0.07365
Jul 15, 2020 03:59AM	Will the Indian government continue the TikTok ban through July 14, 2020?	-0.012308