RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 29, 2024 02:03AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	77%	96%	-19%	+5%
No	23%	4%	+19%	-5%

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 02:56AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	38%	0%	+38%	+0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	0%	0%	+0%	-2%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	0%	22%	-22%	-27%
More than or equal to 28%	62%	77%	-15%	+29%

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 03:01AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	25%	-18%	-4%
No	93%	75%	+18%	+4%

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 01:53AM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	35%	22%	+13%	-2%
No	65%	78%	-13%	+2%

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 01:54AM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	29%	Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025	Oct 29, 2024	84%	-55%	+1%
No	71%	Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025	Oct 29, 2024	16%	+55%	-1%

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