hirsch-sw

At the end of last year, there were 1400 autonomous vehicles registered in California, and ~14.2 million vehicles in general in 2020. There are about 200,000 accidents per year or 5,000 per 3 months. If the number of registered vehicles is static (which it isn't, but this isn't a full analysis), the three-month accident rate is 5,000/14.2 million or ~ 0.035% of the cars on the road. The crash rate for autonomous cars is a little over double the rate for non-autonomous cars, so let's give it 0.07%. That's still under 1 car. Autonomous vehicle purchases would have to be way up to make a significant dent, so I'll go with the lowest bracket. I'll come back and improve my calculations later. 

https://1800injured.care/self-driving-car-accident-statistics/#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20over%2080%20firms,36%20states%20and%20Washington%2C%20DC.&text=Overall%2C%20autonomous%20vehicles%20(AVs),to%204.1%20for%20conventional%20cars.

https://sigelmanassociates.com/california-car-accident-statistics/#:~:text=There%20are%20nearly%20200%2C000%20automobile,well%20over%20half%20a%20million.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/196010/total-number-of-registered-automobiles-in-the-us-by-state/

https://www.kqed.org/news/11897647/youre-not-imagining-it-there-are-more-driverless-cars-in-sf-now#:~:text=Lenore's%20right%3A%20There%20are%20more,November%2C%20according%20to%20the%20DMV.

Seen many headlines on European migration recently. I still think 8 to 10 is excessive, though. 

I don't think it's highly probable since it would win a battle (Ukraine,  but even that is dubious) but lose the war (a greater sphere of influence). So far, Putin has shown that he knows how to throw off NATO with a minimum of action,  so why would he do something that would unite NATO against him?

Also, a nuclear weapon leaves the area useless. If he wanted to nuke Ukraine, he would be, under his line of reasoning, nuking his own empire, which makes no sense. Also, history has shown that Russian military strategy is very often focused on the long game, not brief intermediate wins.