jrriggs2124

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023? 0.011303
    Mar 17, 2023 02:12PM Will a European country announce that they are sending fighter jets to Ukraine by 30 April 2023? 0.409928
    Mar 1, 2023 05:01AM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 17, 2022 and Sep 1, 2022) 0.002366
    Dec 29, 2022 05:00AM In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 31, 2022 and Jun 29, 2022) -0.00166
    Jul 28, 2022 07:10PM Will the U.S. Congress pass a tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing or design before 1 January 2023? 0.358215
    Mar 16, 2022 04:00PM In Stanford University's 2022 AI Report, what percentage of new US resident PhD's in AI will be Asian, Black or African American, Hispanic, or multiracial? 0.234401
    Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022? 0.184105
    Feb 24, 2022 03:00PM What percentage of the continental U.S. will be experiencing severe drought or worse on 22 February 2022? 0.119985
    Feb 17, 2022 11:00AM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Feb 17, 2022) -0.003252
    Jan 31, 2022 03:05PM How will the ratio of China-authored to U.S.-authored highly cited (top 1%) AI papers change over the next three years? - 2021 -0.001868
    Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) -0.01291
    Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021) -0.00544
    Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021) -0.0072
    Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021) -0.00384
     
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