RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?	0.06095
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?	0.381698
Mar 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 17, 2022 and Sep 1, 2022)	-0.004926
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	-0.001824
Jul 31, 2022 04:00AM UTC	Will the U.S. House Subcommittee on Consumer Protection and Commerce vote on the Algorithmic Accountability Act of 2022 before 31 July 2022?	-0.178787
Jul 30, 2022 04:00AM UTC	Will the U.S. Senate vote on the American Innovation and Choice Online Act before 30 July 2022?	0.284942

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