RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM	Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023?	0.435639
May 23, 2023 03:04PM	Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022)	0.001379
Mar 1, 2023 05:00AM	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	0.079911
Dec 29, 2022 05:00AM	In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 31, 2022 and Jun 29, 2022)	0.047407
Aug 1, 2022 04:00AM	How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? - 2022 H1	0.282486
Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM	Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022)	-0.244283
Jul 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 3, 2022 and Jul 3, 2022)	0.329093
Jun 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between May 3, 2022 and Jun 3, 2022)	0.34111
Jun 2, 2022 01:40PM	What will be the price per ton of aluminum on 1 June 2022?	0.326346
May 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 3, 2022 and May 3, 2022)	0.09466
Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM	When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	0.094078
Apr 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 3, 2022 and Apr 3, 2022)	0.664465
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM	Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	0.100741
Feb 24, 2022 03:00PM	What percentage of the continental U.S. will be experiencing severe drought or worse on 22 February 2022?	0.293585