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0
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0
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
28%
(0%)
Less than 20%
41%
(0%)
More than or equal to 20% but less than 24%
31%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24%
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 30, 2023 08:01PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
76%
Yes
Apr 30, 2023 to Oct 30, 2023
Why do you think you're right?
There are many security strategy implications and social norms (people's sentiments, ties with the US, and US military presence in nearby countries) that will prevent China from attacking.
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Why might you be wrong?
I may be wrong because China has often pursued more aggressive policies and miltiarization in the South China sea area
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Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
Russia is already in its own conflict