Confirmed previous forecast
0.053793
Relative Brier Score
20
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 4 | 23 | 20 | 319 |
| Comments | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 92 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 65 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Files
Bold bet! Could be...
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
0%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Only if its delayed.
Files
This announcement from Malaysia may not qualify. The more details section states "The announcement must occur during the forecast period, but actual implementation can occur later. If a system was announced before 4 November 2025, it will not count even if implementation occurs during the forecast period."
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
0%
No
Why do you think you're right?
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-62778-8
It will happen and with AI, maybe sooner.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If any war breaks out, this event will be delayed.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why might you be wrong?
If landmines are not ID, casualties can occur.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 18, 2025 01:35AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 18, 2025 to Mar 18, 2026
50%
(0%)
No
Sep 18, 2025 to Mar 18, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files