RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM	Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	0.017793
Feb 16, 2022 06:45PM	Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2021 and Dec 31, 2021)	0.385393

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