It's mid-Feb 2023, and 2022's Osprey system (433 qubits) is not available on IBM's Access Plans. Incremental update towards Condor (>1k qubit system due for completion this year) not being on an Access Plan by the end of 2023. I'll continue making similarly sized updates with each month that Osprey doesn't show up.
0.198611
Relative Brier Score
17
Forecasts
18
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
26%
(-2%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Estimate is now < 0.5% based on my previous methodology
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-4%)
Yes
Not enough time left
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
96%
(+36%)
Japan
98%
(+18%)
The Netherlands
40%
(+10%)
South Korea
30%
(+10%)
Any other country not listed
Reports of trilateral agreement with Japan/Netherlands reached yesterday. Official announcement seems imminent
https://www.ft.com/content/baa27f42-0557-4377-839b-a4f4524cfa20
With more multilateral agreement, likely higher chance other countries join? Bumping up SK / other countries forecasts on this basis, but pretty uncertain.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
1 month left, Vlad's still kickin
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-4%)
Yes
Passage of time, 1 more launch for the US
Files
Prev years release (Osprey) still not available.
Note: Osprey is now listed on the Acess Plans page, but as "coming soon"