Confirmed previous forecast
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
13
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 4 | 17 | 13 | 246 |
| Comments | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 76 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 36 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 55 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2025 to Mar 31, 2026
97%
(0%)
No
Mar 31, 2025 to Mar 31, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Less than 30 days
7%
30 days
17%
31-60 days
11%
61-90 days
35%
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
I think one plausible way this could occur could be as part of a larger peace process, potentially involving a lengthy ceasefire preceding a peace deal, so I'm putting a lot of weight into the last bucket. I also think that there is a decent chance of the ceasefire collapsing early on, but I don't foresee it as being likely to last a while (31-90 days) without extending into a longer ceasefire
Files
Why might you be wrong?
They could agree to a successful ceasefire in the middle buckets
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 59
40%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
30%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
16%
(0%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
4%
(0%)
More than or equal to 90
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Argentina
9%
(0%)
Bolivia
4%
(0%)
Ecuador
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(-2%)
Yes
Feb 10, 2025 to Feb 10, 2026
97%
(+2%)
No
Feb 10, 2025 to Feb 10, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusting down due to lack of news
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Time
Why might you be wrong?
Time