RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?	-0.116674
Jul 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023?	-0.032803
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?	-0.016362
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	-0.02994
Mar 21, 2023 04:00PM UTC	How much will On Running earn in net sales from shoes in Q4 2022?	0.263116
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	-0.002272
Jan 25, 2023 02:00PM UTC	What percentage of ASML's lithography sales will be to the United States in 2022?	0.017017
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	-0.001345
Dec 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022)	-0.000857
Nov 28, 2022 03:46PM UTC	Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022?	0.155688
Nov 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022)	-0.000997
Sep 26, 2022 04:00PM UTC	Will the Brothers of Italy Party (FdI) win the most seats in the 2022 Italian general election?	0.022284
Jul 30, 2022 04:00AM UTC	Will the U.S. Senate vote on the American Innovation and Choice Online Act before 30 July 2022?	-0.025491
Jul 21, 2022 01:00PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for June 2022?	0.007179
Jul 06, 2022 03:59AM UTC	What percentage of Arizona will be facing severe drought or worse on 5 July 2022?	-0.000513
May 31, 2022 03:08PM UTC	Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?	0.001426

henrytolchard

Henry Tolchard

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