RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM	Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023?	0.044725
Apr 20, 2023 06:16PM	What percentage of contributions to Github's “very high impact” AI projects will be from the EU in 2022?	-0.449
Mar 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 17, 2022 and Sep 1, 2022)	-0.00015
Dec 29, 2022 05:00AM	In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 31, 2022 and Jun 29, 2022)	0.000066
Jul 31, 2022 04:00AM	Will the U.S. House Subcommittee on Consumer Protection and Commerce vote on the Algorithmic Accountability Act of 2022 before 31 July 2022?	-0.052642
Jul 28, 2022 07:10PM	Will the U.S. Congress pass a tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing or design before 1 January 2023?	-0.048336