Russia is likely to be on the defensive the rest of 2023
0.266824
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Less than 7%
25%
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
58%
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
5%
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
2%
More than or equal to 22%
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If spring offensive fails and support from the West stops
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 23, 2023 09:02AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Apr 23, 2023 to Oct 23, 2023
Why do you think you're right?
China would be bette rif waiting.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It is something they want to do at some point in the future.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
It would require complete defeat of the Russian army in Ukraine or Putin to die.
Why might you be wrong?
Putin is not immortal and could die of natural causes